NJ.com: Here's what this late election poll says about the Murphy-Guadagno race for governor

Some good news for Phil Murphy heading into tomorrow's election

From NJ.com:

TRENTON -- Democrat Phil Murphy maintains a double-digit lead over Republican Kim Guadagno in the race to succeed Gov. Chris Christie because she failed to win over enough independent voters, a new poll shows.

Both nominees shored up strong support among their base, according to the latest Quinnipiac University Poll on Tuesday's race, which pegs Murphy at a 12-point lead among likely voters.

That's eight points smaller that the 20-point lead Murphy had in the group's last poll, from Oct. 25.

But Guadagno has two glaring problems.

One is that Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 880,000 people. According to the Division of Elections' latest data, the Democratic Party has also seen its rolls grow by just under 2 percent since January, while the GOP's rolls have stayed flat.

Her second hurdle is that the state's largest voting bloc -- unaffiliated voters -- has shrunk by more than 6 percent since the start of the year, and is split between the two candidates.

All this means that Murphy retains the edge.

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Corzine Narrows Gap to 3 Points New Poll Shows

By The Associated Press
October 01, 2009, 5:11AM

Another poll out today finds Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine closing the gap on Republican challenger Chris Christie in the New Jersey governor's race.

Forty-three percent of likely voters in the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll out Thursday favored Christie, 40 percent Corzine and 8 percent independent Chris Daggett. The 3-point difference is within the poll's sampling error margin of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Corzine's disadvantage is down from 14 percentage points in August.

A Quinnipiac Poll released Wednesday found similar erosion of Christie's margin. Christie led 43 percent to 39 percent among likely voters. A Sept. 1 poll had Christie up by 10 percentage points.

The Monmouth/Gannett poll surveyed 527 likely voters from Sept. 24-29.

The election for New Jersey Governor will be held on Nov. 3.

Good News For Corzine- Latest Poll Results Show That Race Is Begining To Tighten

There's some good news this moring for the Corzine campaign, the latest Quinnipiac poll released last night shows that the race between Governor Corzine and his Republican challanger Chris Christie has begun to tighten.

Christie leads Corzine by a 51% to 42% margin. That's a 9-point lead for Christie, but a three point "improvement" for the governor over the July Quinnipiac polling results. When Independent Chris Daggett is added to the mix, Christie's lead shrinks to 6% (46%-40%).

The Governor still has some problems to overcome but he seem to be headed in the right direction.

Tom Hester from New Jersey Newsroom has some good commentary and synopsis of the poll:

"Democratic incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine has gained serious ground on Republican challenger Christopher Christie and now trails the former federal prosecutor 46-40 percent in the three-way race for governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.

In a poll releases July 14, two days before President Obama appeared before 17,500 people to endorse Corzine at the PNC Arts Center, Christie led the governor 54-20 percent in a three-way race with Daggett garnering 13 percent of likely voters.

The latest poll shows Corzine picked up 20 percent more likely voters in the past four weeks while Christie lost 8 percent and Daggett dropped from 13 percent to 6 percent.

The poll shows likely voters who abandoned Christie and Daggett have switched to Corzine. Potential voters who remain with Daggett, a former Republican, are people who would likely have gone for Christie if the independent was not in the race....."

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New Jersey's GOP Primary: Lonegan Isn't Christie's Biggest Problem

By Bill Pascoe , CQ politics

With five weeks left until Primary Election Day, the Republican gubernatorial primary in New Jersey just kicked into high gear.

But are the rival campaigns -- and GOP primary voters -- overlooking the most salient data?

Is Jon Corzine -- who just registered the highest-ever job disapproval ratings on record for a New Jersey Governor -- nevertheless on a glide path to reelection?

Political New Jersey has been aflutter since last Wednesday, when the release of two new surveys -- one by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, and one by Strategic Vision -- focused attention on the threat posed to establishment Republican frontrunner Chris Christie by conservative challenger Steve Lonegan.

Quinnipiac has a long history of polling in New Jersey.

Quinnipiac, as it always has, told us how the poll was conducted, including telling us the size of the subsample of likely GOP voters.

Strategic Vision, by contrast, didn't tell us what was the size of the subsample of GOP voters, or tell us whether the survey respondents were screened for a likelihood to vote.

Consequently, most campaign veterans -- at least those who aren't already on the Christie campaign payroll -- focused on the Quinnipiac numbers.

That Quinnipiac survey indicated that the GOP gubernatorial primary was a lot tighter than most people had believed it to be.

According to that survey, Christie's lead over Lonegan was a mere 9 points, at 46-37 percent, among the subsample of 486 likely GOP primary voters.

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Kennedy's Support Fades in New York

New York voters, by a 31% to 24% margin, prefer State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over Caroline Kennedy for appointment to Sen. Hillary Clinton's soon-to-be-vacant U.S. Senate seat, a new Quinnipiac poll shows.

However, most voters still believe that Gov. David Paterson will ultimately pick Kennedy for the seat.

-Political Wire

CNN/Time: Obama Gaining in Battlegrounds

The latest CNN/Time polls in five crucial battleground states suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains over rival Sen. John McCain.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%

Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%

Said pollster Keating Holland: "Obama has gained ground among moderates in all five states. That may have something to do with the first presidential debate. Some commentators knocked Obama for agreeing with McCain as often as he did, but moderates tend to like it when candidates appear willing to see the other side's point of view."

A Quinnipiac poll released earlier today shows Obama ahead in the three big battleground states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.