It Will Be a Nail Biter But Poll Shows Obama Solid in the Battleground States

From Political Wire


The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama moving slightly ahead of Mitt Romney, 47% to 46%.

However, Obama "maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 322 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes."

Other tracking polls: IBD/TIPP shows Obama up 47% to 45%, Rasmussen shows Romney leading 50% to 46%, Gallup has Romney ahead 51% to 46% and UPI/CVoter has the race tied at 48% to 48%.

Poll: Independents boost Obama in Florida

The most recent Miami Herald poll shows that Barack Obama has opened up a 49-42 percent lead over John McCain in Florida, according to the poll, Obama earns high marks on the economy and is drawing huge support from the swing voters who decide elections in the nation's largest swing state.

Landslide?

Based on analysis of the latest polls, Dick Morris forecasts a landslide for Sen. Barack Obama.

"If the election took place this week, it would be a wipe out of major proportions. Even McCain's home state of Arizona has to be classified as leaning toward Obama. McCain, as of now, can be certain of carrying just eight states with a combined total of only 36 electoral votes."

-Political wire

Florida Republicans cast blame as McCain trails in polls

The Miami Herald - John McCain's plunging poll numbers in Florida have top Republicans second-guessing and starting to distance themselves from the campaign.

For the first time in more than a decade, Florida Republicans are considering the almost unthinkable: Their presidential nominee could lose the state.

The economy, an unpopular president, a strong opponent, and the inability of John McCain to reverse poll numbers despite repeatedly revising his strategy has top state Republicans looking for someone to blame.

''There are a lot of folks who have never been in a foxhole before and are clearly nervous,'' said Brian Ballard, a major McCain fundraiser. ``There is some finger-pointing going on a little bit too soon.''

Even Gov. Charlie Crist, who helped deliver Florida for McCain during the primary, said he will be spending more time minding the state's weak economy than campaigning for the Arizona senator in the final weeks before Election Day.

''When I have time to help, I'll try to do that,'' Crist said last week, after he flew around the state with McCain running mate Sarah Palin. Saturday, he skipped a McCain football rally and instead went to Disney World.....

VP Debate Pushed Undecided Voters to Obama

What's the McCain Camp to do?

Politicalwire -

An Ipsos/McClatchy poll found that Gov. Sarah Palin's performance in last week's vice presidential debate actually hurt her running mate, Sen. John McCain, among undecided voters.

Before the debate, undecided voters were leaning 56% to 44% for McCain. The day after the debate, the numbers tilted 52% to 48% for Sen. Barack Obama.

Said pollster Clifford Young: "It's suggesting an overall tendency of undecideds toward Obama, so it is significant. We're catching an underlying trend that's going on."

The poll also found that Sen. Joe Biden won the debate, 54% to 46%.

CNN/Time: Obama Gaining in Battlegrounds

The latest CNN/Time polls in five crucial battleground states suggest that Sen. Barack Obama is making some major gains over rival Sen. John McCain.

Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Minnesota: Obama 54%, McCain 43%

Missouri: Obama 49%, McCain 48%

Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 47%

Virginia: Obama 53%, McCain 44%

Said pollster Keating Holland: "Obama has gained ground among moderates in all five states. That may have something to do with the first presidential debate. Some commentators knocked Obama for agreeing with McCain as often as he did, but moderates tend to like it when candidates appear willing to see the other side's point of view."

A Quinnipiac poll released earlier today shows Obama ahead in the three big battleground states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Obama Has Put Virginia, North Carolina and Indiana in Play

The Democrats lost each of the past two presidential elections to Republican George W. Bush by the difference of the electoral votes of one big state. This prompted the campaign team for Democratic nominee Barack Obama to build a game plan that would put into play more states that typically vote Republican. Though the “bounce” in polls enjoyed by Republican candidate John McCain following his nominating convention early this month briefly called this strategy into doubt, Obama’s recent resurgence to a lead in most national polls — and gains in many state polls — has revived his party’s hopes of winning in states lost by Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004.

CQ Politics, in fact, has changed its electoral vote ratings for three states — all longstanding Republican presidential strongholds — where Obama appears increasingly competitive. Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes, has been reclassified as No Clear Favorite, CQ Politics’ category for the most competitive races, after previously being rated Leans Republican. CQ Politics also changed the ratings of both Indiana, with 11 electoral votes, and North Carolina, with 15 electoral votes, to Leans Republican, a category for highly competitive races that sweeps in states where McCain has a slight edge, from the less competitive Republican Favored category....

Tracking Poll Update

The latest daily tracking polls all show Sen. Barack Obama moving into a clear lead over Sen. John McCain over the course of the last week.

Diageo/Hotline: Obama 48%, McCain 43%

Gallup: Obama 49%, McCain 44%

Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 44%

Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%

Obama establishes double-digit lead in Iowa poll

One of the keys to Democrat Barack Obama's presidential race strategy is winning Iowa. A new poll there has him leading Republican John McCain 52 percent to 40 percent.

The Obama team not using national polls

According to Mark Blumenthal of the Progressive, Obama's massive turnout effort (including 600,000 new voters in Florida) and innovative polling methods suggest that the traditional polls used by journalists may be way off.

McCain expects Obama to get 15 percent bump in polls

By Sam Youngman
Posted: 08/22/08
The Hill - Leading the News

Barack Obama may get a 15 percent bump in the polls from the announcement of his vice presidential pick and next week’s Democratic convention, according to a memo from John McCain's campaign.

The memo from campaign strategy director Sarah Simmons attempted to set expectations for the Democratic senator from Illinois, who has failed to break 50 percent in most polls since clinching the delegates necessary to win his party’s nomination. She also blamed what she predicted will be worshipful media coverage of Obama.

Simmons’s memo said that the media coverage surrounding Obama's acceptance speech will be so "effusive," the campaign thinks Obama will see a polling bump comparable to former President Bill Clinton's 16-point bump following his convention in 1992.
“Obama’s stadium address on Thursday — the 45th anniversary of Rev. Martin Luther King Jr.’s 'I Have A Dream' speech — will result in effusive and overwhelming press coverage,” Simmons wrote in the Friday memo. “On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech, as has been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama’s place in history.”

Simmons also said the McCain campaign anticipates that Obama will be able to use the convention to make strides in winning over disaffected supporters of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), and that will add to his bump.

She also said Obama's decision to delay announcing his choice of running mate until close to the convention could give him a bump. Such announcements usually result in a five-point bump that “dissipates” quickly, but Simmons said it could endure because of the nonstop media coverage that will follow from the announcement to Obama’s acceptance speech.

Simmons also acknowledged in the memo that the Democratic convention is a historic event, noting that "Democrats have just completed an incredibly compelling primary cycle that has both energized and divided the Democratic Party."

"We believe Obama will see a significant bump, and believe it is reasonable to expect nearly a 15-point bounce out of a convention in this political environment," Simmons wrote.