New Phase and Shifting Balance: Democrats consolidate progressive base while Republicans in deepening trouble

From Democracy Corps


The latest national survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund shows a Republican Party in deepening trouble and emerging underlying trends that may have shifted the balance for 2012. Barring sudden economic shocks, there is accumulating evidence that we have entered a new phase in the political cycle, substantially more favorable to the Democrats.


This survey sees a collapse of the Republican brand at almost all levels. Negatives associated with the Republican Party have not been this high since right after they lost the country in 2008. Their presumptive nominee flirts with a 50 percent negative rating and may now represent a big drag on the national party. 

President Obama nears the 50 percent mark and is now just four points away from what he achieved in 2008. Democrats have newly consolidated the progressive voters of the Rising American Electorate who were responsible for Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008. These voters—unmarried women, young voters, and minorities—dropped off in 2010 and lagged throughout 2011. They have returned in a big way for Democrats, led by a resurgence and re-engagement of unmarried women. Only young voters have not been re-consolidated, which is either a problem or an opportunity.
 

“The Rising American Electorate, unmarried women especially, is largely responsible for the gains Democrats are making and this survey demonstrates in vivid terms the importance of the RAE to the progressive base.”


-- Page Gardner, 
Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund

Seniors, who abandoned Democrats in 2010, have come back two surveys in a row and suburban swing voters watch the Republican primary debate with growing alienation from the Republican Party. The tax issue, a presumptive Republican advantage, has moved dramatically in favor of the Democrats.

These results may not simply be the result of a spot of good economic news and rough news cycles for Republican nominees, but the beginning of long-term structural changes that will characterize the 2012 election cycle.

Recent controversies over Planned Parenthood and contraception will not revive the Republican’s standing, indeed, the opposite may be true, as this survey shows voters disagree with them on principle and wonder why at a time of great economic distress, Republicans are consumed with denying birth control coverage for women.

This survey provides fair warning to the Republican Party that they may be losing the country.

A more detailed analysis of these results can be found at Democracy Corps.

New York's 26th Not Alone; ALERT BASED ON A NEW NATIONAL SURVEY

Democracy Corps
Greenberg,Quinlan,Rosner Reasearch

Republican leaders and conservative pundits have spun Democrat Kathy Hochul’s upset win in New York’s 26th Congressional District as exceptional – with peculiar ballot lines, Tea Party independents, quality of the candidates, and Democratic message discipline. We concede: yard signs in Upstate New York did read “Save Medicare: Vote Hochul.” But our national poll completed on Wednesday shows that New York’s 26th is not alone. It is an advance indicator of a sharp pull back from Republicans, particularly those in the House.

Disapproval of the Republicans in the House of Representatives has surged from 46 percent in February to 55 percent in April to a striking 59 percent now. Disapproval outnumbers approval two-to-one; intense disapproval by three-to-one. For the first time in more than a year, the Democrats are clearly even in the named Congressional ballot – an 8-point swing from the election – and Obama has made a marked gain in his job approval and vote against Mitt Romney – with the President now leading by 4 points. This period captured the introduction of the Republican budget plan and vote by the House – and voters do not like what they see.

Perhaps most notably, this survey flags a major retreat from the Republican approach to deficits and spending, the economy, and jobs. As the Republicans have unveiled their plans and approach during this four-month debate on the deficit, priorities and the economy, they have pushed many voters away.

On Wednesday, Democracy Corps will release a major multi-study report on the economy and economic messaging, but we wanted to release these political findings before the holiday weekend.

The memo and frequency questionnaire can be found at:
Democracy Corps.

Corzine and Christie In Tight Race for New Jersey Governor: Corzine Down by 6 points in New Poll

Things are starting to get interesting in New Jersey's race for Governor.

A new survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Stan Greenberg and James Carville’s organization Democracy Corps puts Governor Corzine within striking distance of Republican Chris Christie. The survey shows that Corzine now trails Christie by just 5 points in a three-way race and 6 points in a two-way matchup. Christie leads Corzine 40 to 35 percent, with Independent candidate Chris Daggett attracting 10 percent of the vote. In a two-way trial heat, Christie leads Corzine 43 to 37 percent.

As voters learn more about Chris Christie, his negative ratings appear to be rising. His negative ratings are now as high as his positives—32 percent view him favorably, 31 percent unfavorably.

Meanwhile, the Republican brand continues to carry negative connotations in New Jersey. The Democratic Party generates a more positive reaction than their Republican counterparts, receiving a favorable-unfavorable rating of 40 to 39 percent compared to a favorable-unfavorable rating of 29 to 43 percent for the Republican Party.

These results are based on a Democracy Corps survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner from August 11-12, 2009 among 620 likely voters in New Jersey. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percent.

You can find this release as well as the full survey results at http://www.democracycorps.com/. Democracy Corps intends to conduct polling and release survey data in the New Jersey Governor’s race every two weeks between now and Election Day.