New Phase and Shifting Balance: Democrats consolidate progressive base while Republicans in deepening trouble

From Democracy Corps


The latest national survey by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Democracy Corps and Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund shows a Republican Party in deepening trouble and emerging underlying trends that may have shifted the balance for 2012. Barring sudden economic shocks, there is accumulating evidence that we have entered a new phase in the political cycle, substantially more favorable to the Democrats.


This survey sees a collapse of the Republican brand at almost all levels. Negatives associated with the Republican Party have not been this high since right after they lost the country in 2008. Their presumptive nominee flirts with a 50 percent negative rating and may now represent a big drag on the national party. 

President Obama nears the 50 percent mark and is now just four points away from what he achieved in 2008. Democrats have newly consolidated the progressive voters of the Rising American Electorate who were responsible for Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008. These voters—unmarried women, young voters, and minorities—dropped off in 2010 and lagged throughout 2011. They have returned in a big way for Democrats, led by a resurgence and re-engagement of unmarried women. Only young voters have not been re-consolidated, which is either a problem or an opportunity.
 

“The Rising American Electorate, unmarried women especially, is largely responsible for the gains Democrats are making and this survey demonstrates in vivid terms the importance of the RAE to the progressive base.”


-- Page Gardner, 
Women's Voices. Women Vote Action Fund

Seniors, who abandoned Democrats in 2010, have come back two surveys in a row and suburban swing voters watch the Republican primary debate with growing alienation from the Republican Party. The tax issue, a presumptive Republican advantage, has moved dramatically in favor of the Democrats.

These results may not simply be the result of a spot of good economic news and rough news cycles for Republican nominees, but the beginning of long-term structural changes that will characterize the 2012 election cycle.

Recent controversies over Planned Parenthood and contraception will not revive the Republican’s standing, indeed, the opposite may be true, as this survey shows voters disagree with them on principle and wonder why at a time of great economic distress, Republicans are consumed with denying birth control coverage for women.

This survey provides fair warning to the Republican Party that they may be losing the country.

A more detailed analysis of these results can be found at Democracy Corps.

New York's 26th Not Alone; ALERT BASED ON A NEW NATIONAL SURVEY

Democracy Corps
Greenberg,Quinlan,Rosner Reasearch

Republican leaders and conservative pundits have spun Democrat Kathy Hochul’s upset win in New York’s 26th Congressional District as exceptional – with peculiar ballot lines, Tea Party independents, quality of the candidates, and Democratic message discipline. We concede: yard signs in Upstate New York did read “Save Medicare: Vote Hochul.” But our national poll completed on Wednesday shows that New York’s 26th is not alone. It is an advance indicator of a sharp pull back from Republicans, particularly those in the House.

Disapproval of the Republicans in the House of Representatives has surged from 46 percent in February to 55 percent in April to a striking 59 percent now. Disapproval outnumbers approval two-to-one; intense disapproval by three-to-one. For the first time in more than a year, the Democrats are clearly even in the named Congressional ballot – an 8-point swing from the election – and Obama has made a marked gain in his job approval and vote against Mitt Romney – with the President now leading by 4 points. This period captured the introduction of the Republican budget plan and vote by the House – and voters do not like what they see.

Perhaps most notably, this survey flags a major retreat from the Republican approach to deficits and spending, the economy, and jobs. As the Republicans have unveiled their plans and approach during this four-month debate on the deficit, priorities and the economy, they have pushed many voters away.

On Wednesday, Democracy Corps will release a major multi-study report on the economy and economic messaging, but we wanted to release these political findings before the holiday weekend.

The memo and frequency questionnaire can be found at:
Democracy Corps.

Women Turn Away From Christie Over Mammogram Issue

NewJerseyNewsroom -

Democracy Corps poll finds Corzine now ahead of Republican challenger by 3 percentage points

With less than four weeks remaining before Election Day, a new Democracy Corps poll made public Thursday gives Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine a 3 percentage point lead over Republican challenger Chris Christie.

Corzine leads 41 percent to Christie's 38 percent with Independent Chris Daggett garnering 14 percent, his highest level yet.

Earlier in the week, another poll showed Corzine with a 1 percentage point lead.

The poll found that a barrage of criticism by Corzine's campaign over Christie's position on insurance coverage for mammograms for women turned potential women voters, especially independent women, against the Republican.

The poll was conducted for Washington-based Democracy Corps by Greenberg Quinlan, Rosner Research. James Carville and Stan Greenberg, who run the non-profit Democracy Corps have worked in the past as Democratic Party strategists.

The poll found Corzine has consolidated the vote among his base, crossing the 80 percent threshold among Democrats and winning for the first time more Democrats that Christie has Republicans.

The poll also found Christie's standing has declined markedly in the last two weeks, with 42 percent now rating the Rep ublican as unfavorable versus 30 percent who rate him favorably. The 12-point favorability decline equals a 10-point decline from two weeks ago.

Corzine is rated favorably by 37 percent of voters and unfavorably by 46 percent.

The poll states, "As he faced a withering assault from Corzine and independent groups over the issue of insurance coverage of mammograms, Christie has lost significant ground with women, especially independent women. He now posts a net favorability rating of -19 with women, down from -7 two weeks ago. Among independent women, the drop is even more pronounced: from -7 two weeks ago to -34 today, with half the independent women giving him an unfavorable rating. This has clearly benefited Corzine in the vote as the governor now leads among women by 14 points, up from 6 points two weeks ago.''

Daggett is identified by 45 percent of voters, an increase of 16 points over the last two weeks, though his overall favorability ratings remain only lukewarm at -4 points, about where he has been since the poll began tracking the race in August.

The poll was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday among 614 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.

New Jersey Governor Race Now a Tie: CHRISTIE HAS NET NEGATIVE FAVORABILITY FOR FIRST TIME

According to the new poll released earlier today be pollsters Democracy Corps, New Jerseys race for Governor is now a dead heat with Republican Chris Christie at 40 percent, Democratic Governor Jon Corzine at 39 percent and independent Chris Daggett receiving 11 percent of the vote.

And now, more New Jerseyans for the first time , rate Christie unfavorably than rate him favorably, 34 percent unfavorable to 32 percent favorable.

"Corzine continues to benefit from the Democratic partisan advantage the Garden State. Democratic candidates for the state legislature hold a 41 to 37 percent lead on the generic ballot and the Democratic Party remains much more popular (42 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable) than the Republican Party (31 percent favorable, 40 percent unfavorable). President Barack Obama also remains very popular in the state with 57 percent rating him favorably and just 28 percent rating him unfavorably."

The Obama Generation

Here is an interesting piece from Political Wire that is sure to raise a few eyebrows.

A new Democracy Corps poll shows the Republican Party is "growing more and more irrelevant to America's young people. In marked contrast, young people's support for the President has expanded beyond the 66 percent support they gave him last November."

"Republicans struggle among young people for a very specific reason. At a time when young people are paying close attention to politics and when so many are struggling economically, even more so than older generations, the Republicans simply do not speak to the reality of their lives or to the issues important to them. This perception stands in marked contrast to their reaction to Barack Obama."

Focus Groups Find Obama Won Debate

Political Wire-
During and after the debate, Democracy Corps conducted focus groups among 45 undecided voters in St. Louis, Missouri.

"With Barack Obama gaining momentum, John McCain needed to change the dynamic in the race during tonight’s debate and to shift the focus of the campaign onto friendlier terrain. Instead, Democracy Corps research finds that McCain essentially held his ground in this debate, while Obama emerged with higher personal favorability and increased confidence in his ability to handle critical foreign policy and national security issues.

During and after the debate, Democracy Corps conducted a set of dial and focus groups among 45 undecided voters in St. Louis, Missouri. These voters had an unmistakably Republican tilt, voting for President Bush by a 2-to-1 margin in 2004 and self-identifying as 33 percent Republican and 27 percent Democrat. But playing on his perceived strength of national security and before a friendly audience, McCain could only manage a draw among this group. Of our 45 initial undecided voters, a quarter moved to Obama and a quarter to McCain after the debate with the rest remaining undecided. Moreover, by a 38 to 27 percent margin these voters said that Obama won this debate."