Friday, November 1, 2013

A Christie Editorial Analysis: A factual review of the Christie term

By Brian Froelich
Monmouth County Freeholder Candidate


The Asbury Park Press editorial opinion endorsing Christie was disappointing as well as inaccurate. The Press then went on to endorse practically all of the Republican Legislative candidates based on the candidates support of the Christie agenda. So the Press editorial deserves a full response.

The Press’s basic (but factually unsupported) opinion is that Christie’s programs to turn the state around, to contain government spending (at all levels of government), to bringing public employee salaries and benefits under control, and to make New Jersey attractive to businesses again have been largely successful. Yet this assessment seems later contradicted when, in discussing Buono, the Press defines New Jersey’s pressing current problems as property taxes, jobs and a lethargic economy.

Even the Star Ledger, which endorsed Christie while (at least figuratively) holding its nose, admitted that his achievements are “only modest” at best and miserable when compared to his “measurable failures”. They called some of his agenda a “catastrophe” and his budget claims “fraudulent”. They found his ego entertaining but damaging. In sum they considered him “overrated”. In the end they perversely, but not without reason, blamed limited Democratic Party support for Buono for their Christie vote.

Bob Braun, one of the most respected reporters and opinion writers in New Jersey, wrote a scathing analysis of his former employer’s opinion supporting Christie.

So let’s look at the facts.

First, nobody in their right mind would think that this state is turning around! Our unemployment remains regionally high and our employment growth anemic. High paying jobs in key industries (like pharmaceuticals, high tech, etc) are leaving and being replaced by low wage service jobs. Foreclosures in New Jersey are some of the highest in the nation. The office vacancy rate in Monmouth County, for example, is over 30%. One large high tech building, that alone represents 2 million square feet, has stood vacant for years. And Christie’s billion dollar subsidies to attract business have been largely fruitless. Whatever “clear signal to the business community that it is welcome in New Jersey” that the Press believes Christie has sent has clearly not been received.

From a finance point of view the results are similarly poor. Our bonds, already lowly rated, have been downgraded again. One study called Christie’s budgets “structurally unsound”. And a recent New York Times article detailed and criticized his budget “gimmicks”. Even the Wall Street Journal is not impressed with his financial antics. In 2012 they wrote; “The proposed use of dedicated revenues—a form of revenue often called a one-shot—has increased threefold since Mr. Christie's first budget in 2010, and is nearly seven times as much as he put in last year's spending plan”.

In short there is not a scintilla of evidence that anything that Christie has done is having a positive economic effect. And he has bet the ranch, so to speak, that online gaming will bail him and us out of this hole in the future.

Regarding specific projects, his gamble to support the gaming industry in Atlantic City (e.g. Revel) and the failed Meadowlands Shopping Mall crapped out. And Christie passed on the one project that would dramatically improve the regional economy in both the long and short term. The Hudson Tunnel would have created an economic asset with a hundred year lifespan and doubled river crossing rush hour capacity. It would have created thousands of short and long term jobs, raised home values and tax revenues, and brought a regional economic boom. But he wouldn’t bring his Press praised negotiating skills to get it done. His mishandling of the faulty $400 million federal education application was clearly inept.

The Press listed the merger of UNDMJ and Rutgers as a specific accomplishment. It is an incredibly bad idea that only a politician, but no reasonable business person, would endorse. UMDNJ is a financial and managerial disaster. Combining it with an already large complicated (and even challenged) institution before it is running smoothly is a clear error. I am a strong supporter of Rutgers President Barchi. But a merger at this point is expensive and puts both institutions at unnecessary risk.

And Christie has really done nothing to contain spending at any level of government. His state budget is back to Corzine levels largely as a result of raising pension fund payments back to the more responsible Corzine level. His 2% local spending cap scam has more holes than Swiss cheese. His cuts to education, town aid, and property tax rebates just made it more difficult for towns and middle income home owners. The best evidence of his present failure is that NJ debt, tolls, transit fares, electricity bills, tuitions, and property taxes (by 20%!) have all gone up while home values and ratables have gone down. His overly aggressive revenue projections have forced him to defer payments to future years increasing future budget pressures.

Public employee salaries and benefits are clearly an issue that needs more attention. But most towns and Boards of Education have been tackling this problem on their own out of sheer necessity and local pressure. And both Democrats and Republicans (and even unions!) at the state and local levels have been successfully making progress on this problem.

Even with some issues during and after, by most reasonable judgments Christie did his job during the Sandy Storm. The Press credits his popularity to this effort. But only since Katrina has simply doing your job during natural disasters been considered a high standard.

Finally, and even after labeling it disrespectful, the Press was especially supportive of Christie’s “style that has resonated… with a majority of New Jersey residents”. While that may be true it will still be considered unfortunate by many that the Press confused talking tough with talking straight and bullying with statesmanship.


*********************
This post is from Brian Froelich's blog located on Howell Patch


No comments: