NJPP Monday Minute 8/23/10: Extending Bush Tax Cuts for Top 2% Shortchanges the Economy

When Democrats in New Jersey raised the top rate on the state income tax last year, it was billed as a one-year, temporary increase on millionaires. When it expired this year, Democrats voted to renew the increase for another year. Republicans, emboldened by Gov. Christie's veto threat, said "no." They reasoned that Democrats purposefully wrote the expiration into the legislation, and so it should be allowed to expire.

In Washington, D.C., the partisans argue opposite sides of the "expiration" debate.

Republicans a decade ago enacted what came to be known as the Bush tax cuts, the signature domestic policy legislation of the Bush Administration. That legislation enacted tax cuts with an expiration date at the end of this year. Republicans want to renew the legislation. Democrats in Congress (echoing Republicans in New Jersey) argue the bill was written with an expiration date, and so it should be allowed to expire.

If it feels a little like a funhouse mirror, well, there's a reason.

None of the partisan back-and-forth is about good fiscal policy or philosophical differences. It's entirely about gaining political advantage.

But it should be pretty clear by now tax cuts haven't spurred the nation's economy. In fact, the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression happened on the heels of deep federal tax cuts. It makes almost no sense, from a policy perspective, to continue such cuts.

A study earlier this year by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office of 11 options for stimulating economic growth placed tax cuts dead last in effectiveness. Top among the options for creating jobs and jump-starting the economy: job-creation tax credits; extended unemployment benefits and funds to help states balance their budgets with fewer cuts in services.

A proposal by President Obama would allow the tax cuts to expire for the highest-income taxpayers while temporarily extending the cuts for the other 98 percent. Effectively, the plan would restore taxes on households with incomes of $250,000 or more to the same levels as ten years ago, except for tax cuts enacted as part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

This chart from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities uses the CBO analysis to break down the cuts by income category:



The CBO study found that allowing the tax cuts to expire for those earning $250,000 a year or more - the wealthiest 2% of all taxpayers - would provide $40 billion in public funds over the next two years to invest in economic programs to boost the economy. Extending the cuts for the high-income earner would likely spur after-tax investments that would increase the GDP by about $10 billion, the CBO said. By comparison, the Center on Budget points out using the economic multipliers in the CBO analysis, investing $20 billion into state fiscal relief and $20 billion in job-creation tax credits would generate about $32 billion in GDP. That's a tripling of the effect of extending the tax cuts.

For taxpayers in New Jersey, Obama's proposal would mean an average federal tax cut of $2,245 in 2011 taxes over what would have been owed in 2001. For 80% of New Jersey taxpayers, that's actually more than the Republican proposal for extending the tax cuts, according to a state-by-state analysis by Citizens for Tax Justice. Higher income households would still reap substantial savings: at least $10,000 for those with incomes of $350,000 or more.

It seems clear that given the anemic effect tax cuts have in stimulating the economy and the immediate impact of channeling those savings back into the economy, the Obama proposal is the middle ground that will provide revenue for improving the economy at the same time it provides relief for the greatest number of taxpayers who have been hardest hit by the economy.